Introducing Your New Leading Scorer: Logan Aronhalt

 


Logan Aronhalt is poised for a breakout season (Times Union)

 

This summer, exciting news has been trickling out about Logan Aronhalt: he’s finally fully recovered from a series of foot injuries and he spent the summer training with the Houston Rocket’s Kevin Martin (Logan’s dad even gets a plug on Martin’s Wikipedia page). But hoping for Martin’s 22 points per game to transfer over to Logan through osmosis isn’t the only solace for Danes’ fans- the numbers from last year vouch that Aronhalt is poised for a breakout year.

The use of the previous years’ stats as a predictive measure for breakout players comes from Luke Winn’s excellent and now yearly column. He uses three filters to determine the candidates: played less than fifty percent of their team’s minutes, used 24% or more of their teams’ possessions and boasted an offensive efficiency rating of over 100 points per possession. The theory behind the method is that a player does not drastically change in “type” (scorer, role player etc) throughout his career: “While playing time often changes between years 1-2 or 1-3, the data showed that a player’s offensive mentality tends to stay largely the same.”

The Great Danes had a perfect example of this only a few years back: Jason Siggers. The numbers suggest that the change in production between his junior and senior year was not due to development but opportunity. In 2005-6, Siggers was a superb 6th man who played 30.5 percent of minutes, used 22.3 percent of shots and had an offensive rating of 106.9. In 2006-7, his usage and offensive rating stayed almost that same (25% and 106.6) while his %Min soared to 77.4. His overall offensive numbers took off and he was named to the All AE-First team.

Back to Logan- he is not the ideal match that Siggers was, but the suggestion of success is still strong. According to kenpom, his overall statistics last season were 41.2 % Min, 23.5 % Poss but also a 93.2 offensive rating, a major drawback. From that alone, you could decipher that Logan will be putting up a lot of shots, but the overall benefit for the team would be questionable. Fortunately, his games against conference opponents tell a different story. With the help of the good people at Hoya Prospectus, I was able to work out the numbers myself for Logan’s America East Conference Games: 54.6 % Min, 23.7 % Poss (second most only to Ambrose) and an offensive rating of 98.4. This stat-line provides more convincing that Logan will an important and valuable part of the offense. Last season, UA only had a 94.1 offensive rating as a team, so if Logan even plays at last least season’s in-conference level, he will have a positive impact on the team.

Here is where the speculative home-crowd portion of this article takes over (oh, aside from the fact that I already tweaked Winn’s filter quite a bit): If you factor in a healed foot and a more mature shot selection along with a void in minutes/production left by the graduation of Will Harris, expect a big jump from Aronhalt’s 6.7 PPG and even his 10PPG in conference. The “leading scorer” prediction might be a bit too bold, but he’s without question one of the top candidates. Though do remember, what really counts is if he can push his efficiency rating above 100, to the 102+ range. If so, Albany could be very exciting to watch come conference time.

Other Breakout Candidates Across the League:

Chris Martin, Stony Brook : 55.5 % Min, 27.0% Poss, 98.9 O Rtg

Ferg Myrick, New Hampshire: 29.8 % Min, 31.0 % Poss, 89.8 O Rtg

Kyrie Sutton, Binghamton: 31.7 % Min, 24.2 % Poss, 94.9 O Rtg

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~ by TheMidRangeGame on October 13, 2010.

4 Responses to “Introducing Your New Leading Scorer: Logan Aronhalt”

  1. I have heard that Logan has slimmed down and is about 10-12lbs lighter then last season. If his foot doesn’t act up I would expect him to have a break out season.

    When he was being recruited in almost all the youtube type stuff I saw he always had a dunk or two but last season he showed little if any explosiveness. Hopefully if his foot is fully recovered we will see a more explosive, quicker Logan this will help his defense as well as his offense. What seems apparent is that even when he struggled he was a true competitor.

    Good Luck to Logan, who I hear is also an excellent student.

  2. I agree, bill (and thanks for your comments!). Last year he still showed a willingness to mix it up despite lacked the top flight athleticism that was expected coming in- and that especially hurt him on the defensive end.

  3. I love the statistical analysis here. However foot injuries are always tricky in basketball and I hope he can stay healthy this season. Hopefully dropping some weight will help and he’ll have the type of production predicted!

  4. Glad I got this one up before Wilkin’s article and Brown’s quote:

    “I would be shocked if he is not our leading scorer this year,” Brown said”

    http://www.timesunion.com/default/article/Healthy-Aronhalt-determined-to-play-709110.php

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