One Last Rational Look…

One last rational preview before we’re all blinded with rage. Here are a dump of advanced stats from the treasure trove that is

Time To Drop Bombs (UAlbany Athletics)

The head to head team ratings:

UA Off Rating 99.2 102.3 Siena Def Rating
Siena ORtg 101.4 105.1 UA DRtg

UAlbany’s ratings are skewed a bit by the Georgia Tech and American games, but the numbers still indicate that it will be harder for UAlbany to stop Siena than it will be for Albany to score on Siena.

M% ORat FLR% eFG% FTR POS% OR% DR% A% T% S% B%
Aronhalt 91.8 107.8 46.1 51 14.5 27.3 6.9 6.4 7.6 14.8 1.2 1.1
Ambrose 80 114.1 52 61.1 28.8 26.4 4.6 11.7 29.5 21.2 2.9 0
Devlin 62.1 110.1 48.8 51.1 16.6 14.2 9 16.6 8.9 17.7 0.9 1.1
Puk 51.8 59.9 30.3 30.4 17.3 10.2 2.9 18 3.2 29.6 0 8
Metcalf 46.3 87.8 42.3 53.5 32.1 16.9 13.7 12.1 9.5 27.5 2.5 1.4
Black 34.2 98.7 45.2 58.8 35.2 24.6 2.1 5.4 10.4 30.2 2.8 0



M% ORat FLR% eFG% FTR POS% OR% DR% A% T% S% B%
Rossiter 90.2 110.4 57.6 51.8 55.4 26.8 12.2 32.3 5.2 16.3 1.8 3.8
Jackson 86.9 104.5 48.2 51.2 33.7 25.1 2.1 5.8 16.3 19.1 2.6 0.9
Wignot 76.7 144.8 60.2 67.1 25 9.6 4.8 7.2 7.8 9.3 1.8 2.2
Brookins 65.3 74.5 35.7 36.5 34.6 25.9 0.7 3.5 20.3 32.8
Anosike 59.1 96.6 51.2 62.1 48.6 18 6.2 11.7 2.9 19.5 1.1 2.1
Griffin 36.7 92.2 42.7 40 35 18.3 1.2 11.3 28.2 31 1.8 0
Martens 35.9 78.8 41.9 34.2 57.8 15.5 7.6 16.7 2 16.6 1.9 3.6

I used a highly complex coloring code to point out key stats… that ended up looking a lot like ketchup and mustard. Pushing forward, mustard stains are positive omens for UAlbany, while ketchup blots are warning signs.

Albany must shoot well: This is our primary advantage; the Great Danes are the better shooting team. Logan and Ambrose have incredible efficient offensive ratings for the huge amount of possessions they’re taking up. Neither of these two can slip up. Devlin also has produced well in his limited opportunities. The Danes do not want a grind it out, defensive affair.

Beware of the Charity Stripe: Drawing fouls is one area where Siena’s has unquestioned advantage. Our top scorer and possession guy, Logan, has an anemic Free Throw Rate, the lowest of all our top 6. Rossister leads the way for Siena, but Anosike, Brookins and Martins all get to the line at a high rate. Free throws are the easiest way to bolster a poor shooting squad. A reason for hope here is we haven’t seen a fully healthy Mike Black. If he effectively gets into the lane, Albany won’t need to rely so heavily on outside shooting.

Point Guard Play: Brookins has for the most part taken over the point and the #3 scoring option and that may be in Albany’s favor. His inconsistency has led to a very shaky offensive rating of 74.5 and he has a high turnover percentage. The freshman has been disruptive though, getting a high Steal Percentage; Albany will have to continue to protect the ball well to counter Siena’s pressure. So the burden really comes down to Mike Black. I am perfectly willing to write of his 30% turnover percentage as a product of rust, but we shouldn’t forget that he is currently only a few tenths from last years TO %. Growth in his second year at point guard not a foregone conclusion. He will have to show real maturity and savvy to carry this team on Saturday night and throughout the year.

Offensive Glass/Rebounding: Another slight advantage for the Danes in this critical category, led by both Devlin and Metcalf who hit the offensive boards extremely well. The numbers help show the stark divide between Puk and Metcalf; Puk is far superior defender both in rebounding and block shots, but Metcalf makes more positive contributions on the offensive end. Devlin has done a respectable job on the defensive glass, but to put it in perspective, he only gathers defensive boards at half the rate of Rossiter. How Rossiter fends off the offensive rebounding of Puk, Devlin and Metcalf is a big swing factor in this game. When he gets his chance, Metcalf is going to have to perform better on the defensive end than he has to date.

Also, drifted over to the conference leaders and some interesting stats on how the Danes are doing compared to their America East foes:

-Logan and Ambrose are second and fifth respectively in the America East in scoring

-Logan is first in the league in minutes played per game

-Tim Ambrose is the fourth most efficient player in the league to date. Who would’ve thought…

-John Puk is second in the AE in block percentage and third in total blocks

-Luke Devlin is ninth in rebounds per game

~ by TheMidRangeGame on December 4, 2010.

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