Staying Scared: Previewing the Colgate Raiders

On paper, the Colgate Raiders do not look up to par. The team comparison numbers are below, but before I get too overconfident and forget that we have no business taking any game for granted, I came up with some….

Reasons to be scared

Jinxes: On the board, I called this an easy win. The stats say we should crush them. I’m wildly overconfident. We’re destined for a letdown.

Home Court Advantage: Colgate got destroyed by Maine on the road this weekend… but they’ve had more success against the America East at home. In their only two home games of the year, they lost to Binghamton by 2 and New Hampshire by 5. Perhaps they’ve got enough moxie at home to unsettle and maybe even overthrow the streaking Danes.

Freshman Potential: The unknown might be more frightening than the known for Colgate. Two freshman, 6’5 Pat Moore and 6’3 athletic guard Chad Johnson, have shown flashes of potential this season; each have had a 12+ point outburst in the last three games.

Bounce Back: The problems of this team start with 6′ point guard Mitch Rolls. The sophomore has started every game, played 68% of minutes…. and has a 59 offensive rating. FIFTY NINE! He uses 22% of possessions and the young man is a black hole. His 38.4% turnover rate almost defies negative adjectives for a point guard. But if Mitch, well, gets on a roll, then everything else could fall into place.

Height: This team has some height, Nick Pascale, is 6’10 big who can play on the perimeter and there’s also UVA transfer 6’11 John Brandenburg. Pascale has been a solid offensive threat (111 ORtg) and is second on the team in rebound, while  the latter has never collected more than four rebounds a game.

Scarier Opponents: Colgate has been mauled by both Duke and Syracuse on the road, so maybe after seeing Kyrie Irving, perhaps Mike Black won’t seem so fast.

Fun Name: Yaw Gyawu is the leading scorer and rebounder (12 PPG, 5RPG); if Colgate springs the upset, they won’t do it without a big game from Yaw Yaw.

And here’s the promised statistical comparison (#’s are team rankings):

Ken Pomeroy Stats
Colgate Offense vs UA Defense Ranks

Col. Offense UA Defense Advantage
Efficiency 327 266 UA
Effective FG% 327 166 UA big
Turnover % 332 320 push
Off. Reb. % 197 226 push
FTA/FGA 257 28 UA big
UA Offense vs Colgate Defense Ranks

UA Offense Col. Defense Advantage
Efficiency 201 337 UA
Effective FG% 87 267 UA big
Turnover % 261 315 push
Off. Reb. % 75 320 UA big
FTA/FGA 313 304 push

They’re decent on the O glass, but hasn’t been a glaring weakness of this team. If UAlbany plans an average game, they should take this one, perhaps going away.

~ by TheMidRangeGame on December 21, 2010.

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