After a great run at PAGN, I’ve started up http://www.unrankedae.com and you’ll be able to catch all the same Albany content over there (with a bit more rest of the league thrown and hopefully some spirited debate).
Many thanks to clickclack for bringing me on and I appreciate the readership throughout the last year!
Well, this summer was a blast. Natural disasters are lining up to take their shots at the east coast, but the Great Danes (injured and bigman-less) did a number on our neighbors to the north. They finished up with an impressive 10 point victory over a team, Carleton, that is said to be both #1 in Canada and D1 caliber.
Here’s some numbers to chew on — with a few observations to follow.
| Albany | Carleton | |
| 2FG% | 64% | 49% |
| 3FG% | 33% | 46% |
| FT% | 72% | 75% |
| Poss | 70.7 | |
| Eff. | 128.66 | 114.52 |
| eFG% | 58.33 | 57.14 |
| TO% | 7.07 | 16.97 |
| OR% | 25.93 | 46.51 |
| FTA | 48.33 | 19.05 |
| FTM | 35 | 14.29 |
| ARate | 45.16 | 73.33 |
| BRate | 2.78 | 16.22 |
| SRate | 4.24 | 7.07 |
| Player Name | MIN | % Min | Poss % | Floor % | Shot % | O Rat | eFG% | OR% | TO% | A Rate | FT Rate | DR% | |
| 2 | Aronhalt, Logan | 35 | 0.88 | 0.3 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 145.15 | 0.63 | 0.08 | 0 | 0.12 | 36.84 | 0.07 |
| 12 | Hooley, Peter | 30 | 0.75 | 0.22 | 0.67 | 0.16 | 129.34 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.24 | 142.86 | 0.12 |
| 30 | Guerrier, Jason | 29 | 0.73 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 63.01 | 0.38 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| 22 | Watts, Ralph | 25 | 0.63 | 0.12 | 0.58 | 0.16 | 119.18 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Metcalf, Blake | 29 | 0.73 | 0.16 | 0.84 | 0.16 | 165.7 | 0.86 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.12 | 42.86 | 0.38 |
| 20 | Suero, Gerardo | 22 | 0.55 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 109.14 | 0.41 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 54.55 | 0.17 |
-Would you like a swig of the Gerardo Suero kool-aid? I’m hitting it pretty hard now myself. I love the ability to get to the rim. The one kernel of doubt for me is with such a high usage rate (33% is HIGH) how will he assimilate into offense if he’s having an off night?
-This would’ve been a fun game to watch — two beautiful offensive performances, very efficient and extraordinarily high assist rates. Not to mention low turnovers. The low shot clock may have led both teams to churn out shots, but they were putting up good ones (at the end of the trip, guessing defense wasn’t on a premium).
-Peter Hooley. He’s the story of this trip for me. 6’4 Aussie was billed as having some point guard skills and I had my doubts — but with Black down, he had his chance to lay the first definitive stake on back-up point guard minutes. Tanner is a work in project and Watts never really seemed to assert himself. A few explosive scoring games, nice A/TO numbers and ability to shoot from deep and draw fouls (his free throw rate was just silly this game) means Peter could be a special player sooner than later.
-Still trouble on the defensive glass. Watch closely, my friends.
-Have been silent on the biggest fellow so far, but Blake Metcalf deserves his due. He’ll never be great offensive threat, but he clearly used his mass tonight and cleaned up down low. Solid game.
-Let’s hope Logan has the legs to pull off these kind of minutes/production for a full season. If so, scoring title isn’t even a question.
The Danes are Canada, Logan is encroaching in our territory blogging about it and, so far, the trip hasn’t tempted the United States to unleash total war against America’s Hat. The good guys in Purple spread out the minutes, whomped the French speaking foes (was there any doubt?) and we’ve got the box scores to prove it thanks to Media Guru B Diddy. Here’s some numbers to chew on:
| Albany | UQM | |
| 2FG% | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| 3FG% | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| FT% | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Poss | 82.83 | |
| Eff. | 103.83 | 68.82 |
| eFG% | 51.39 | 30.77 |
| TO% | 16.9 | 14.49 |
| OR% | 34.04 | 46.27 |
| FTA | 33.33 | 23.08 |
| FTM | 16.67 | 11.54 |
| ARate | 53.13 | 39.13 |
| BRate | 10.64 | 7.02 |
| SRate | 3.62 | 2.41 |
Player stats and a few penetrating insights after the jump
Continue reading ‘America Wins! Shall we run the numbers, eh?’
Last week, we had a chance to briefly check out a couple Great Danes, including late addition to the recruiting class, JUCO Jayson Guerrier. I like everyone else want nothing but the best for this kid. My main point was, that after viciously defending JUCOs (Hatcher and Moore) from doubters, after a very small sampling in the most informal of settings, I could imagine similar fan dismay.
BUT as this blog is nothing if not fair (we’re more than willing to tell Bingo the truth — that they suck) and we’re about to prove balance.
I contacted summer league team captain Harley Fuller (you can learn more about him at harleyfuller.com) for a second opinion:
I just met [Guerrier] a few weeks ago so I’ve had the opportunity to play with him 5 or 6 times. Jay is sneaky athletic and definitely help UAlbany win some games with his shooting. He has potential to be a great player for the Danes. He can definitely guard the teams best player at the D1 player. Nice recruit for Will Brown.
So there you have it. Look for an upcoming PAGN investigation whether or not Fuller is on the UAlbany payroll. Kidding, kidding — I’m excited to have the kid in Purple and Gold. Hopefully he adds to an potentially prolific three point shooting team — and I love to hear anything positive about defense.
… only 79 days until midnight madness! Right around the corner!
Unless you have the misfortune of living in Canada, last week was the final chance to catch any of the Great Danes in action. Luckily, Purple and Gold Nation has you covered. Thursday night was a “playoff” game that pitted, vaguely, U Albany versus Siena (you can try to sort through the stats here but bring a box of salt – the dates don’t even match up). Mike Black, Blake Metcalf and late pick-up Jayson Guerrier took on OD Anisoke and Kyle Downey.
Quality of game was inconsistent (it’s summer league), but so much better than second game which was street ball minus any semblance of skill. OD just overwhelmed Metcalf and the Danes team fuller fell behind by double digits at half.
Black drained some nice threes to help claw back in the second half, but overall didn’t penetrate effectively and when he did, it was very forced and not productive.
Metcalf did his usual ‘workingman’s effort’ but was overwhelmed by OD downlow –but but did force OD into some bad turnovers and a caused him to miss a monster dunk.
At first glance, I suspect all the JUCO fears/ complaints will again be hauled out for Guerrier. He looks to be a red-shirt candidate. He showed nothing – not big enough to play inside, not quick enough to play outside, and a shot that make ‘early’ Watts look like Jerry West. He didn’t play much (which as much a statement on his skill as anything) so maybe I didn’t get a good sampling, but he didn’t look like he belonged on the floor.
The good guys didn’t have enough to pull it out but, in the end, we’re all winners… because no one tore their ACL in a low level summer league.
So, the America East year is over? Time to look into the crystal ball for next year.
1. Stony Brook
Martin carried them to their success with his dribble drive, but this team won’t go away when he graduates. Brenton should return his intensity and ability to attack the hoop and open it up for outside shooters. Their frontcourt should dominate the rest of the league with Brenton, Joyner, McAlister and Mayo (the latter two have a big time future in this league). With Do-er and Hayes, this team has two lights out spot up shooters– and if Hayes stays on his trajectory he can get shots at the rim. We can only hope Preboye or Coley or Anthony Jackson or Marcus Rouse or Al Rapier or Danny Carter (shit, this team is deep) don’t take the next step.
2. UAlbany
I started this team out at four. And then moved them to three. Then finally to second. It’s time to hold Will’s feet the fire, this team should produce — the league looks weak again this year. Fourth was nice, it’s time to make the next step. Mike Black need to be the Black of the last two regular season games, Devlin and Puk need to improve inside, Logan needs to find his role as a spot up shooter, not a gunner. Timmy is a huge loss, but the Danes should have the most solid line-up top to bottom of any team in the league- even if Watts is the guy at the three. The incoming class has a slasher (Suero) and big body (Rowley) and two x-factors (Page and Aussie 2). This team is two years away (I think the peak should be with Black and Logan as seniors) and Will Brown needs to hammer our a new rotation and find a new go-to guy (Timmy was a top 100 guy in the country in terms of shots taken).
3. Vermont
With Fjeld gone, I want to knock this team down. They lose Accooee. They never seem all that great on paper. But with their near miss at Cleveland St., we got a glimpse of how they’ll recover. Luke Apfeld is one of the most bouncy, athletic bigs and he should help fill the void of the ‘Stache and Kissell on the boards. More importantly, Sandro Carissimo will have a full year at point. Brian Voelkel with continue to out-tough and out-smart the league. Brendan Bald could emerge as one of the best players in the league and Matt Glass didn’t get to the point where he could. And huh? 6-10 Pat Bergmann went 16 and 8 in the NIT, will he go Barnies and launch a senior year campaign out of nowhere? Hopefully somebody from a better conference offers Lonergan a fat check or he will continue to haunt this league.
4. Boston University
I had them higher originally, but losing Holland will be such a blow. DJ Irving should have no problem adjusting because he’s already the quickest player in the league. He exudes that stud mid-major point guard- at some point he’s probably going to take over the America East. For next year though, a lot more depends on how Partin reacts. He’s a shooter, but if you let him be #1 option, what happens on those off nights? After watching the AE and NCAA games, I don’t know if he’s ready. I think on the board someone was trashing this recruiting class by Chambers. That’s bunk in my opinion- we know nothing about Terry (who looked like an athlete when he got spot minutes) and Robinson because they were buried behind the league’s best talent. They’ll have their time next year. The problem is inside. Hazel is AE gold on the defensive end, but Dom Morris needs to fight off his inner Jake Lindfors and get that huge body away from the perimeter. Pelage hasn’t come around and with injuries etc, and he may have hit a ceiling, but he provides some muscle on the glass. What will Jake O’Brien be like? The 1st teamer predicted this year? Chambers has another well regarded class coming in, so I expect a similar season- it might take some time for the new Terriers to get used to each other, but they have enough talent to be a power player in this league.
5. Maine
They’re own infutility may have returned them to a great sleeper pick. McLemore is primed for a monster senior year and Ali Fraser is a load inside. Singleton is a solid point guard. It could all come together… too bad (for Maine) Woodward is awful.
6. New Hampshire
With Abreu and Ferg Myrick back, this is an intriguing team. Brian Benson is springy and will be on the best rebounders in the league. Bronner and Rhoads progressed and Buckley has talent, but it’s hard to see this team as dangerous. They’re still awful shooters.
7. UMBC
Woo, woo! Could this be the year the rise from the cellar!? CDLR is good, while Satchell and Neller took a step back. I still have some faith in Jamar Wertz, my failed pre-season all rookie pick. Some solid looking recruits coming in (Will Wise could be a steal), this team needs a change of direction in terms of intensity and leadership.
8. Hartford
This team should be amazing now that Joe Z, the human momentum killer, is gone. They would’ve beaten Boston if not for Joe Z’s 0-8 3FG. Genesis Maciel plays like Larry Bird against us, so they have that going for them… This team loses a ton of scoring and a ton seniors though, so it looks like it’s time to kick the rebuilding machine into gear.
9. Binghamton
This team should compete for being THE WORST team in the country. If Macon didn’t hate playing Sutton, his best talent, they might steal some games.
Too-Early, Wishy-Washy 1st Team All Conference Picks:
Brenton/ Hayes
Voelkel/ Bald
McLemore
Partin/ Irving
And…..
UAlbany player to be named later. Black? Logan? Devlin? “Association” Suero? Hell, the new Aussie? I think somebody will crack the top 5.
How You Like Me Now? (UAlb Ath)
Brian Lillis Heart of Champion
If this award had existed before the start of the season and not just five second ago no one, no one would have guessed that it would go to Timmy Ambrose. Before the season started, I put him on the highly inclusive “Honor Roll” but felt inclined to include the note: “I’m not writing him off yet!” Everyone was ready to usher out the Tim Ambrose Era. Will Brown had him coming of the bench because he was a liability, the crushing failure of the last season couldn’t help but fall on our number one guy. The board was ready for his numbers and minutes to dwindle- anything to stop his turnovers from continuing to mount. Instead, he dedicated himself in a way we never saw before- he became the motor of the team. Many times he looked like the only guy out there trying and Will Brown repeatedly told him at the half to lay into his teammates who weren’t supporting him. He carried this team to a monumental LCC win, he hauled them to victory when it seemed like the rest of his team was trying to toss it away (CCSU) and when the final second ticked off in Hartford, he left everything on the floor. He finished the fourth all-time scorer in UAlbany history and after a career where he was criminally under-appreciated and over relied on, Ambrose walks away one of the most talented players to ever wear the uniform.
Minutes Up and Production Up. Beautiful. (StatSheet)
Jon Iati Talent Maximization Award
This goes to our double-double machine Luke Devlin. The lad is not fleet of foot. Hell, he’s the slowest kid on a team slow kids. But he was always willing to put his neck (or more specifically, his noggin) on the line for a basketball. He has a nice jump shot, but there’s no way to explain how he is such a terror on the glass.
“This Is A Young Team” Award for Retired Excuses
“This is a young team.” Yes, there will be no seniors on the team next year, but this group has logged a lot of minutes. If Will Brown blames a loss on youth, Lee McElroy should break up the post game interview with Rodger and fire Will on the spot. This is not a jest.
Club Trillion Award
Derrek Tartt. Tartt’s twitter provided insight throughout the year of what it’s like to be inside the head of a player buried on the bench behind 5-6 Jacob Iati.
The More Things Change…. Award
Kenpom final rankings. This year UAlbany finished 242. Guess what they finished two year ago? 242. So are we on a historic rise? Or are we just recovering to mediocrity after an awful anomaly of the season (292). Hate to say it, but until we prove we can make a step forward without Ambrose… I’ll fear it’s the latter.
Kirsten Zoellner Tree in the Paint Award
John Puk. That lanky red shirt freshman awkwardly wearing dress clothes last year turned out to be… decent?? I was highly skeptical a red-shirt freshman would have any impact, but he leapt over both Lindfors and Metcalf into the starting line up. He trailed off towards the end of the year, but he was surprisingly athletic and altered a lot of shots in the middle– heal up big fella.
Start Running Wind Sprints Award
Logan Aronhalt. You’re healthy– now figure out how you can become a stud spot up shooter/scorer for 25 games next year, not 15.
Click Clack Will Harris Award for Hype:
Jamar Wilson. He joined the One Bid Wonders live chats last week and he was talking big BIG things about Suero, our incoming swingman recruit. “Most talented player ever at Albany.” He’s throwing around NBA talent. And I think he means the National Basketball Association. That’s a serious, serious claim that is toying with our hearts and souls, Jamar. (He also mentioned that some people think he has a questionable work ethic)
Doc Sauers Longevity In Coaching Award:
Will Brown is doing just enough to stay around. He’s got one year left on his contract and might be able to swing an extension. My opinion? Let him go lame duck next year- he has zero seniors next year, so it won’t hinder his ability to give out scholis he doesn’t have (/recruit players for positions in rotation he doesn’t have). It should help keep the intensity that returned to the team this year.
Be The Future (UAlb Ath)
Purple and Gold Nation Psychic Friends Award:
I had Jabbi on my pre-season second team and Chris Martin as my sleeper first round pick– as Martin tears through the AE tournament, that is looking pretty reasonable.
Clutch McClutch Award:
Billy Allen retired and gives his aching back some rest– but his ability to “pinch hit” at the end of games and knock down free throws (not to mention that trey in Detroit) was unbelievable. ONIONS!
Creed Award for the surprising member of the supporting cast:
Ralph Watts, we’ll be happy to have you back next year. A month into the season with Watts starting in the place of the injured Black, I couldn’t see a spot for him on the team. Since then, though, he’s managed to make good on his size and solidified his value with the dunk to finish the game against Maine.
“I Believe I Can Fly” Award
This team was lost without Mike Black in the dark ages that seem so long ago against American and Iona, but once back, he struggled to assert himself. But when he got going, he was one of the best players in the league. Quick and a great shooter, Black has a chance (/ we’re probably screwed if he isn’t) to work himself into the 1st team all conference discussion. I’d love to be able to see him improve his ability to finish in the paint.
(Update: How could I forget!) The Mark Sanford Gone AWOL Award :
Russell Moore. So much promise– Moore, opening day starter over Ambrose. He was (according to Will and glimpses we saw) the best defender on the team, but he never got comfortable. He left school before the end of the first semester, rumored to be chasing his ladyfriend back home. Runner Up: Theo Hatcher. Great name, great dimensions, never stepped onto the floor.
Jamar Wilson MVP Award: Ambrose. You’ve joined a select group of AE 1st teamers, Tim (Jamar, Siggers and Lillis). Our blogging opponent from Xavier said you held your own and could even start for the Musks– finally fulfillingthat A-10 billing you came into the league with. Enjoy your ride off into the sunset.
Purple and Gold Nation 
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